Abstract: Even experienced teams struggle to make accurate project forecasts. After all, Agile projects embrace uncertainty and welcome changing requirements over the course of development. How do you get a sense of your project timeline when you know the least you ever will about it? You can't eliminate the unknowns in a new project, but by using the Monte Carlo method for forecasting, you can work with them. This session will introduce the Monte Carlo method and how it works through the real story of how it was used on a year-long project. Attendees will learn how to use Monte Carlo to create a project forecast, and how forecasting can help manage scope and schedule releases to make a project more successful. The session will cover lessons learned that help to work with (or around) the limitations of the technique. Attendees will also get an opportunity to try out a Monte Carlo forecast for themselves using a spreadsheet they can take to their real-life projects.
Learning Outcomes: - What the Monte Carlo technique is and how it works
- How to create a software project forecast using the Monte Carlo method
- Constraints and assumptions of the method, and how to work with them
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